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In his post-match reaction after his team got walloped 4-1 by Arsenal at the Emirates stadium last Saturday, Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers conceded it will be “very, very difficult” for Liverpool to make the top four.
“It was a game we needed to take something from,” he admits. “Today is a big disappointment but we didn’t defend well enough in key moments of the game.”
The Reds’ boss adds: “Right from the kick off we were too negative. We like to play forward but we put ourselves under the pressure and in the first 10 minutes and they had control.”
His captain, Jordan Henderson insists the Reds chances of making the top four aren’t finished just yet although he admitted thusly: “We knew it would be tough to make top four even before we came here. We have to keep fighting and working and if we win our games left then you never know.”
While I don’t dispute Rodgers’ and Henderson’s right to be optimistic, and while not trying to rain on their parade, I think it is safe to say it will be easier for Lithuania to win the World Cup than for Liverpool to make the top four. Possible, but only if you believe in miracles.
INTRIGUES & BANANA SKINS
Traditionally, when the season gets into the home-stretch like it has now, you cannot discountenance the fact that trip ups, tricky banana skins and shock treatments will be common occurrences especially when the front-runners come up against the basement teams fighting for their lives.
Nobody, least any Liverpool fan, will forget what Crystal Palace did to derail the title aspirations of the Reds when they played a thrilling 3-3 draw last April at Selhurst Park.
The Reds were leading with a comfortable three-nil through goals by Joe Allen, Damien Delaney (own goal) and Luis Suarez but, in a crazy 10-minute spell, Palace stormed back through Delaney and a Dwight Gayle brace to send Anfield into tears.
Liverpool were denied a first league title in 24 years by a Palace side that hardly needed the point. They just played spoilsports, something one would expect the guys jostling for the available continental slots to be aware of.
At the beginning of the season, we stuck our neck out for how the top places would be filled and, at the risk of sounding immodest, I daresay we are spot-on with our postulations. With the season now down to the last seven games, let me do a statistical analysis of what is done and what is left to be salvaged.
ARSENAL
After last weekend’s round of games, Arsenal are in pole position for one of the two automatic Champions League slots behind the champions. The table below shows that the Gunners have seven games left, with four of those games to come at home at the Emirates where Arsenal have won 11 and drawn 3 of 15 games so far.
Their only loss was against Man United last November so it would not be out of place to expect them to get at least nine of the 12 points left to fight for at home.
The only stumbling block to a clean sweep could possibly be the monster clash with Chelsea on April 26 but given the manner Arsenal have won seven straight games on the bounce, you might be forgiven if you expect them to add Chelsea to their long list of victims.
Arsenal, unlike in previous season, have been particularly ruthless at home and have garnered 33 from 45 maximum points for the league’s third best home record.
On the road, Arsene Wenger’s men have also done creditably well to win 8 and draw 3 of 16 games for a third best away record. They have lost only 5 away and have games against Burnley, Hull City and old foes Man United.
The Gunners beat the Red Devils last month in the FA Cup so they’ll be shot full of confidence that they can get something from Old Trafford. Worst case scenario, expect Arsenal to get six points from the remaining nine on their travels. They have the players, pedigree and record to justify this assertion.
If they do, add a minimum 15 points to their current tally of 63 and you’ll have a comfortable 78points which is mathematically impossible for the teams currently in 5th, 6th and 7th spots to catch up with even if they won all their remaining seven games. So you can safely vouch for Arsenal’s 18th successive appearance in the Champions League come next season.
REMAINING FIXTURES
HOME AWAY
26Apr v Chelsea 11Apr v Burnley
11May v Swansea 04May v Hull
20May v Sunderland 17May v Man Utd
24May v West Brom
Home record: 15 11 3 1 37 12 25 36 (3rd)
Away record: 16 8 3 5 25 20 5 27 (3rd)
MANCHESTER UNITED
Currently in second-place, Manchester United have four games on the road at Chelsea, Everton, Crystal and Hull City to contend and, being poor travellers, you won’t be too wrong to expect the former champions to take probably half of the 12 points at stake.
This projection is not harsh if you take into cognizance that United have taken just 22 points from the maximum 45 on their travels so far for the league’s 7th best away record.
However, at home, United have been the most ruthless with 40 points from a possible 48 for the league’s best home record. They have lost twice and drawn once so it would not be out of place to expect them to get the majority of the nine points at stake when Man City, West Brom and Arsenal come to Old Trafford. Louis van Gaal has overseen a quiet revolution at Old Trafford and the fear-factor is coming back with the way they have dispatched teams – five straight on the bounce – in recent weeks.
The Red Devils are up for a strong finish so 13 to 15 of a possible 21 points will not be asking for too much. Should they reach that threshold, it would accumulate to a total of 75 to 77 and just out of reach of the chasing pack currently in 5th, 6th and 7th.
REMAINING FIXTURES
HOME AWAY
12Apr v Man City 18Apr v Chelsea
02May v West Brom 26Apr v Everton
17May v Arsenal 09May v C Palace
24May v Hull
Home record: 16 13 1 2 36 11 25 40 (1st)
Away record: 15 5 7 3 19 17 2 22 (7th)
MANCHESTER CITY
Champions City, despite their Monday night loss at Crystal Palace, have 61 points which is seven more than Liverpool who are currently in fifth. The setback at Selhurst Park notwithstanding, the Citizens are capable of taking all 21 points left but such has been their dodgy form all season that betting on them is not an advisable investment.
Manuel Pellegrini’s men have lost their home invincibility and currently have the fourth-best home record behind Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United with 10 wins and three draws from 15 games for a points total of 33.
They still have games at the Etihad against West Ham, Aston Villa, QPR and Southampton which are very ‘winnable’ games but you never can tell with the cash-rich team. Nonetheless, nine points from last 12 should not be a tough ask, given the quality of opposition to come.
On the road, strangely, City have the second-best record with 8 wins and three draws from 15 (excluding Monday’s game at Palace) and with games at Man United, Tottenham and Swansea still to come, one might be tempted to hazard a minimum of seven points from nine. Given that two of their away games are against top four rivals, you can expect the fight to be brutal and bruising but, on their day, Man City are capable of holding their own against any team.
Hold your breath. City are currently in fourth place with 61 points but they are capable of going as high as 82 points should they win alll seven of their games left. Realistically however, I don’t see them cross the 80-point gap. 78-79 is a more readily achievable target but I hope I’m wrong for City fans’ sake.
REMAINING FIXTURES
HOME AWAY
12Apr v Man Utd
19Apr v West Ham
19Apr v West Ham
25Apr v Aston Villa
03May v Tottenham
10May v QPR
17May v Swansea
24May v Southampton
Home record: 15 10 3 2 31 12 19 33 (4th)
Away record: 15 8 4 3 31 16 15 28 (2nd)
THE ALSO RANS…
LIVERPOOL
Liverpool top the three-man list of teams striving to muscle their way into the top four but a run of recent bad results, injuries and suspensions as well as the transfer speculation surrounding Raheem Sterling, one of Rodgers’ brightest stars, seemed to be taking a toll on the team. As it stands, the Anfield giants have 54 points, seven off a Champions League spot, and with four games away from home where they have the fourth-best record and another three at home where their record is a miserable seveth-best, one can reasonably expect the Reds to finish strongly in the Europa spot.
This, in part, is due to the fact that they are not going to play any of their direct rivals for top four places and, in effect this means even if they get a maximum 21 points they can only finish on 75 with nothing stopping Arsenal, Man United and City from still finishing tops.
REMAINING FIXTURES
HOME AWAY
13Apr v Newcastle 18Apr v Hull
25Apr v West Brom
02May v QPR
10May v Chelsea
16May v C Palace
24May v Stoke
Home record: 16 8 5 3 25 16 9 29 (7th)
Away record: 15 8 1 6 20 20 0 25 (4th)
TOTTENHAM
Tottenham, also on 54, have reasonably easier opponents to play on paper but from what we saw on Sunday when Spurs failed to break down an ordinary-looking Burnley, it would be a long shot in the dark to expect any surprises from Pochettino’s men this season.
REMAINING FIXTURES
HOME AWAY
11Apr v Aston Villa
19Apr v Newcastle
25Apr v Southampton
03May v Man City
09May v Stoke
16May v Hull
24May v Everton
Home record: 16 9 3 4 29 22 7 30 (6th)
Away record: 15 7 3 5 21 23 -2 24 (5th)
SOUTHAMPTON
Bringing up the rear is Southampton and, honestly, the Saints have massively over-achieved this season given the huge clearance sale they did in the summer. So, in my considered opinion, finishing seventh is enough recompense for their effort this season.
SOUTHAMPTON
HOME AWAY
11Apr v Hull
18Apr v Stoke
25Apr v Tottenham
02May v Sunderland
09May v Leicester
16May v Aston Villa
24May v Man City
Home record: 16 9 3 4 27 10 17 30 (5th)
Away record: 15 7 2 6 15 12 3 23 (6th)
THE FACTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES
Like my lawyer friends would say, the facts in this extant case speak for themselves. You must possess a special kind of faith to believe that Liverpool have a snow’s chance in hell of making it to the Champions League next season.
The way the EPL table is set up, with seven games to go, and with Chelsea seemingly out of sight (forget the noise about catching the Blues being spouted by Arsenal and Louis van Gaal, the title is already in the bag for Mourinho. You can take that to the bank!), the top four seemed to be comfortably settled even if there are still seven games (with 21 points) up for grabs.
Team P W D L F A GD Pts
Chelsea 30 21 7 2 63 26 37 70
Arsenal 31 19 6 6 62 32 30 63
M United 31 18 8 5 55 28 27 62
M City 31 18 7 6 63 30 33 61
Liverpool 31 16 6 9 45 36 9 54
Tottenham 31 16 6 9 50 45 5 54
Southampton 31 16 5 10 42 22 20 53
APRIL 7, 2015
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