By Qasim Elegbede

EPL KICK-OFF: MY PRELIMINARY VIEW!

IT’S that time of the year when I normally give you my initial feelings about how I think the season will unfold. And this year will not be any different as I run an initial view on teams likely to fight for the championship in England and the major European leagues. But because of space constraint, I will limit my thoughts to the EPL in this edition. I promise to bare my thoughts on other Euro major leagues later.

With pre-season preparations virtually concluded by most EPL clubs, I think the usual suspects will still reign supreme next May. I see six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United and Tottenham – (not necessarily in this order) battle for the lucrative Top 4 places this season; while I think Southampton will struggle for survival. I think they, West Brom and at least two of the three promoted clubs Leicester and Burnley will struggle for survival. But then, I could be wrong. So to the challengers:

ARSENAL: THE Gunners have had a nice pre season which they rounded up with a comprehensive 3-0 bashing of EPL champions Man City in the Community Shield. The season opener offered very little in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two combatants as they both fielded understrength teams with City being the worse culprits. But from their pre season, it’s obvious Aaron Ramsey remains key to whatever Arsenal will achieve this season just as he was last season before long term injury dealt a bad blow to his and the Gunners title aspirations.

Gunners faithful are excited about the capture of Barca’s Alexi Sanchez, though he failed to show his worth in the three matches I watched him play during pre season. A great acquisition nonetheless, even if I think more than anybody else, Ramsey will be Arsenal’s most important player once again.

I’m not sure if Arsene Wenger will splash more cash, but the Gunners are waver thin defensively. Calum Chambers and Monreal played well in central defence against a weakened City side at Wembley. But they can’t be seriously thought of as adequate replacements for Per Matersacker and Koscielny. Then Arsenal need a real defensive midfielder instead of depending on Mikel Arteta who has been brutally exposed against big opponents. Finally they need more than Olivier Giroud, Campbell and Yaya Sanogo up front to truly challenge for major honours.

MY THOUGHTS: As it were, a Top 4 finish is the best they can hope for with this current squad.

CHELSEA: JOSE Mourinho said the Blues were a work in progress last season, never mind that he inherited a squad that had won two major European crowns back-to-back. The Special One said they would challenge for the EPL crown this season and having splashed the cash on marquee signings such as Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa, winning the league crown is the least to be expected from Mou and his new-improved side.

I tipped them for the league crown last season but Mou failed abysmally. And after having seen them in their pre season, I’m even less convinced of their chances. I’m sure this will surprise a lot of people. But most people were shocked last season when I predicted that Man United would not finish in the Top 4.

MY THOUGHTS: While this is not my final verdict, the little I have seen of the Blues during pre season does not look promising. You only need Man United and Spurs to come to the party and Chelsea’s Top 4 finish could be flagging furiously.

Today’s Chelsea reminds me of Felipe Scolari’s Brazil at the last Mundial. They will beat average teams but could be taken to cleaners by decent teams. And there are at least six very decent teams in today’s EPL.

LIVERPOOL: THE Reds and boss Brendan Rogers surprised everybody including themselves by finishing runners-up last term. After that overachievement come more responsibilities in the guise of the UCL. Liverpool have lost Luis Suarez and his truckload of goals to further compound their challenges.

While any team in the world will miss the prolific Uruguayan, as a Reds faithful, I’m disappointed they have not even tried to fill the chasm left by the new Barca hitman. You never know what ace BR has up his sleeves but putting all your goals hopes on Daniel Sturridge could prove fatal. Yes prolific in his own right, but what happens when he’s injured as it is bound to happen over the course of a long season?

The Reds have recruited massively though they will need a better back-up for Simon Mignolet in goal than Brad Jones just as another marquee striker to support Sturridge could be crucial.
Pre season have not been bad even if not as positive as last season. They will however take huge boost from their 4-0 hammering of understrength Borussia Dortmund in their final pre season match at Anfield Sunday afternoon. Raheem Sterling, Philippe Coutinho and of course, Sturridge will be key to their aspirations this term.

MY THOUGHTS: IF any team would drop from last season’s Top 4, I would have said Liverpool were in the most precarious situation. But if they could be as sharp as they were against Dortmund, never mind the makeup of the opponents, then maybe they may just cling to a Top 4 finish. Nothing is guaranteed at this time, though.

MAN CITY: DEFENDING the league crown is often more difficult than winning it as City found out two seasons ago. But the first priority will be to finish in the Top 4. That should go without question, though I don’t think Manuel Pellegrini will be taking anything for granted.

First the City boss has warned fans not to expect any trophy this term despite winning two last season. Don’t be deceived by their abject display at Wembley in the Community Shield, City still have the strongest squad in the EPL in my opinion.

They have also recruited expectedly, even if I’m not impressed by a couple of their new recruits. Yaya Toure was their main man last season. At over 31 years now, I don’t think he will continue to be that influential. David Silva is another key man just as Stevan Jovetic and Samir Nasri. Edin Dzeko will be there and about as usual while I think Vincent Kompany has aged a bit too.

MY THOUGHTS: I DON’T think City will be able to defend their league crown but it will take a calamity of gigantic proportion for them not to make the Top 4.

MAN UNITED: LOUIS van Gaal has ushered in new waves of optimism and the United rebuild has started in earnest. Pre season form, where they have won all their matches including 3-1 victories over Real Madrid and Liverpool, bode well for a side bereft of confidence under the ill-fated short reign of David Moyes.

The Red Devils are spending big and have said they will not stop until the overhaul is complete. They have set their sights on marquee stars like Juve’s Arturo Vidal, no less, though new boy Herrera looks a bargain acquisition already. But the team need to strengthen in defence as well.

Van Gaal’s revolutional 3-5-2 formation will conveniently accommodate both Wayne Rooney and RVP in their preferred positions, something Moyes couldn’t do without playing the English forward out of position.

MY THOUGHTS: United’s faithful talk of winning the title, though I think a Top 4 finish is more realistic as their team is still short of three to four top quality players from winning the title. Lack of continental distractions should also help their Top 4 bid.

TOTTENHAM: I’M seriously considering Spurs for the Top 4 finish for three reasons. First, their clutch of last season newcomers would have adapted to the rigours of the EPL after an understandably difficult first season. Second is the appointment of coach Mauricio Pochetino who did well at Southampton.

With Pochetino in charge, Spurs will be very difficult to beat for sure as they showed in their pre season matches. And that’s my third reason for looking seriously at them as Top 4 candidates. They have also strengthened though nothing like the influx of last season.

MY THOUGHTS: SPURS need to get their priorities right as Europa League participation could be a big distraction. Should Pochetino jettison the Europa League by playing reserves in Europe’s second tier championship while unleashing his first team on EPL rivals every week, then they will be serious contenders for the Top 4 if their players play anywhere near their very high potentials.

So guys, these are my initial thoughts on EPL contenders. As usual, my final verdict will come in the first week of September after the transfer window must have shut down. I’m very happy to be back on the bit.