For starters, I think the teams which finished in the Top 4 last season will retain their place, though there may be some changes in positions. This will disappoint many United faithful who had hoped the Red Devils would make the UCL spot at the very least. Yes, United have spent fortunes and brought in marquee signings. But, believe me, if they make the Top 4 this season, it will be because Arsenal drop out and Tottenham fail to perform. The chances of the two happening simultaneously are very remote.
So let’s look at the contenders one by one in alphabetical order:
ARSENAL: ARSENE Wenger splashed out a club record 82 million quid (though the net spending is reportedly 56.3m), but surprisingly Le Prof is yet to adequately strengthen in areas where the Gunners have been waver thin – attack and defensive midfield. Olivier Giroud’s injury forced Wenger to splash 16m on Danny Welbeck on deadline day. But in spite of the addition of Chile’s forward Alexis Sanchez, the Gunners still have the weakest firing power among their title rivals, ironically.
The ailing defensive midfield was not addressed in the summer window and the leaders in the defence remain the old faces in spite of the additions of promising youngster Calum Chambers and former Newcastle Utd full back Mathieu Debuchy. In their opening three games of the season, the Gunners have struggled and were lucky to have five points from nine from their opening league games.
MY VERDICT: I don’t think Arsenal have been overly strengthened in spite of their huge net outlay. The key areas which need to be addressed have not. Hence I don’t see them finish anywhere above fourth position, if they don’t fall out from the UCL spot altogether.
CHELSEA: JOSE Mourinho moaned all-season long about his lack of world class finisher last season, hence the 32 million acquisition of Brazil-born Spain hitman Diego Costa this term. A 30m quid splashed on another Spanish international Cesc Fabregas is to adequately fill the void left by the January sale of Juan Mata and ensure enough powders are made for Costa to bomb opponents to smithereens.
Costa has hit the ground running and Fabregas is not entirely new to the EPL even if the “new” level of competition has surprised him. Surely Chelsea are not a two-man team as they have match winners all over the pitch in Edin Hazard, Andre Schurrle, Ramires, Willian, Branislav Ivanovic, Thibaut Courtois, and John Terry just to mention a few.
The Blues have hit the ground running as well, though I think we’ll know the stuffs they’re really made of when they start playing title rivals. Everton, like I warned last month, won’t figure prominently in this season’s campaign.
Chelsea are stronger than last season for sure. But I’m not too certain about their defence which could prove to be their Achilles heel. Terry is slowed by age; new recruit Felipe Luis may take time to adjust to the frenetic pace of the EPL while David Luiz and Ashley Cole are gone. The defence – stronger in goalkeeping department – has been weakened by departures and inadequate replacements.
Another problem could be over-reliance on Costa’s goals. What happens when the poacher is injured. Oh, yes, there’s a certain Loic Remy and even returning legend Didier Drogba. But believe me, Chelsea’s title hopes could suffer a fatal blow if Costa is injured. The final factor that might militate against a Blues title success is their manager, or more appropriately his mouth.
Mourinho practically talked himself out of the title race last season and he hasn’t shown any sign of having learnt his lessons.
MY VERDICT: CHELSEA have the second strongest squad in England in my opinion. Yet, I tip them to win the title if Mourinho will talk less and if they can keep Costa fit and performing all-season long. The Blues have three extra X-factors this season – Courtois, Fabregas and Costa. This should be enough to make the two jumps to clinch the title.
LIVERPOOL: WITH his slew of interesting signings – eight in total – Brendan Rogers has improved the Reds especially ahead of the additional challenge of the UCL campaign. Of course, the big question is how to replace the 31 league goals scored by Luis Suarez, now of Barcelona.
The sad truth is such glut cannot be replaced. But the good news is it could be largely compensated for especially if the midfielders take more responsibilities and share the goals around (my apologies to a certain first lady of a popular country). The Reds made a confident start to the season and quickly rose from the disappointing loss to City by thrashing Spurs 3-0. They already have three points more than they chalked last season from the same three fixtures last season.
Some people have compared Liverpool’s slew of signings with Spurs last season and feared the Reds may suffer the same fate. I don’t think so because Liverpool’s signings are not entirely EPL foreigners. Three of their eight recruits are EPL veterans unlike Spurs who brought in an entire army of EPL foreigners last term.
At any rate, Liverpool would still have needed at least five new players to cope with the extra challenge of the UCL even if Suarez had stayed. With Suarez one of nine departures, bringing in eight new faces cannot be termed an overdose. This is markedly different from Spurs of last season who brought in seven players for one major departure and they were not even in the UCL!
My only concern for the Reds will be in the goalkeeping department which has even been weakened by the departure of Pepe Reina, leaving Simon Mignolet as the only choice – Brad Jones is only a filler. Liverpool are the weakest in this department among their title rivals, all of whom boast of at least two solid goalkeepers. Mignolet is a good goalkeeper. But you need better than that to win the title. The 50 goals he shipped last term were among major reasons why the Reds fell agonizingly short of the league crown. Imagine if they had conceded 10 less, Liverpool would have won the league without a shred of doubt.
Yes, it may sound unfair to single out a goalkeeper for criticism over defensive failures. But truth is a goalkeeper makes the defence, he controls his defence, he organizes them. Unfortunately, Mignolet doesn’t do this. He is too soft and too meek for the task his job demands at this level.
Petr Cech and Edwin Van der Sar were keys to Chelsea and United successes of 2004/05 and 2006/07 respectively. And Courtois is one of the reasons why I tip Chelsea for the crown this term. Sometimes you need a very solid goalkeeper to win the league. At the moment Liverpool don’t have that. Even the rumoured chase of former Barca goalie Victor Valdez will not change my stand.
MY VERDICT: Liverpool may not score a 100 league goals this term, but if their clutch of new signings reach anywhere near their huge potentials, the Reds will be in the title mix and finish comfortably in the Top 4. I see Rogers boys finish anywhere from first to third.
MANCHESTER CITY: THE reigning champions addressed problematic areas by bringing in goalkeeper Willy Caballero and centre half Eliaquim Mangala among three new arrivals. Without these arrivals City were the strongest team in England and could field two different teams and still be as competitive as anybody.
Of course, the loan departure of hitman Alvaro Negredo is a surprise. But City will not feel any unease as they won the league last term with only three world class strikers – Stefan Jovetic was injured for the most part of last campaign. The trio of Jovetic, Kun Aguero and Edin Dzeko can only be matched in England by United’s threesome of Wayne Rooney, RVP and Radamel Falcao.
City’s only problem to retaining their league crown will be inconsistency as witnessed in their surprise 1-0 home reverse to Stoke City. Not that such defeat will be frequent on their run. But a couple of such careless points drop could be the difference between winning and losing the title. They couldn’t have forgotten so soon how Liverpool threw away the crown they now proudly wear.
MY VERDIC: CITY are my second favourites for the league crown. Should they quickly reestablish the consistency which served them well last season and in 2011/12, they will not relinquish their crown easily, and will be there to capitalize on any Chelsea slip.
MANCHESTER UNITED: BIGGEST summer spenders United are still adjusting to new coach Louis van Gaal’s revolutional 3-5-2 formation. Two marquee signings – Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao – are among seven recruits while strikers Danny Welbeck (Arsenal – permanent) and Javier Hernandez (Real Madrid – loan) are among 13 departures as the former champions continued a total overhaul of personnel.
After a princely outlay of 146 million pounds without taking into cognizance the details of Falcao’s loan deal, most United’s faithful expect the Red Devils in UCL next season. However, early results have suggested otherwise and I think the team have a huge battle if they are to realize that dream for the following reasons.
One: LvG is still a couple of players away from the team that can adequately execute his plans. Di Maria, Marcos Rojo, Danny Blind and Falcao are fantastic additions. But speaking analytically, United don’t need any of their two biggest summer acquisitions – Di Maria and Falcao. In Rooney and RVP, they have two world class strikers ably supported by Hernandez and Welbeck.
United’s problem in the middle is the man and the leader who will screen the defence from danger. Di Maria is a world class player. But screening the defence is not his forte. Hence United will still rely on unconvincing duo of Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick for a job that has consistently proved beyond them.
Two: Like in the midfield, United still lack a leader in the heart of the defence in spite of the impressive additions of the duo of Rojo and Blind. I had hoped they would sign a Matt Hummels or LvG would swoop for Aston Villa’s Ron Vlaar who served him well during the Mundial. Falcao and Di Maria et al can help you score many goals, but they can’t help you prevent them.
Three: The time it will take for the players to come to grips with LvG’s preferred formation means United may play catch-up for a place in the Top 4 for the rest of the season. Already, they have dropped seven points from nine which they would have tipped themselves to win.
Four: I think the seeming advantage of not having continental “distractions” and early elimination from the Capital One Cup may be exaggerated.
Liverpool had that pleasure last term but failed to win a trophy. They achieved Top 4 finish because their manager was in his second season with them, the players having fully imbibed his philosophies. This is LvG’s first season in EPL.
MY VERDICT: UNITED faithful may not admit it but the Red Devils are behind at least five teams in the EPL today despite their massive injection of funds and recruitments of world class talents. LvG will surely strengthen the team further during the winter window. But I think it might be too late to break back into the Top 4. I see them finish between fifth and sixth in May. I expect things to be positively different next season. But this season may just have come too soon for the necessary repair to return United to the big time.
TOTTENHAM: SPURS were the only team which made profits in the past summer window.
But that was expected after the glut they brought in last season. In Mauricio Pochettino they have one of the brightest young managerial prospects. And the squad has better balance about them than last year.
Furthermore, I expect their slew of last season’s recruits to have fully integrated into the EPL. All this points to a very fruitful season especially as Pochettino has demonstrated the league will be his priority by fielding a second string side in the Europa League.
MY VERDICT: Spurs are the team I believe can break into the Top 4 were there to be available any space. However, they need to quickly address their uncharacteristic cold feet against big teams as demonstrated against Liverpool last week and then hope any of my Top 4 favourites slip.
Tottenham may not finish in the Top 4. But they will not finish below sixth.
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