Epl Kick-Off Appraisal: Why Chelsea may fail to defend their title

ARSENAL 0, WEST HAM 2: Arsene Wenger got a very rude awakening on the very first match of the season. I have praised the Gunners a lot on this column since the pre-season started and I still think they would finish in the Top 4. And yes, they could still go all the way and win the title for the first time since the glorious invincible run of 2003/2004 campaign. But most certainly not on a performance like they displayed in this match.

For the records, teams who lost their first fixture of the season have gone on to win the BPL on three occasions.

After beating Chelsea in the Community Shield and on the back of a brilliant pre-season, Arsenal turned up against the Hammers like a team on holiday. And as is often the case in the BPL, they got brutally punished by a side which had four competitive matches under their belt before coming to the Emirates – West Ham had played two rounds of Europa League qualifiers before facing the Gunners.

 

Before Sunday’s chastening 2-0 reverse, Arsenal had won the last 10 fixtures against West Ham while they had not lost to the Hammers in 15 matches! And the lessons I think Le Prof could take from this early defeat are that they need a world class striker – Real Madrid’s KarimBenzema fits this description – and a world class defensive midfielder to really challenge for the league crown this season.

Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck are not in that bracket. Also Francis Coquelin is still a rough diamond as a defensive midfielder. If Wenger addresses these grey areas, then his team could challenge for the top prize.

CHELSEA 2, SWANSEA 2: Jose Mourinho said he was angry with his medical staff after the reigning champs were pegged to an opening day stalemate by visitors on whom they did the double last term. Most pundits tip Mou’s Blues to successfully defend their league crown. But I’m not one of those for some reasons.

First is their lack of good pre-seaon, though not an overriding factor. Then their relatively lack of big signings in the ongoing window should be a cause for concern for Blues faithful. Last season, Mou made three marque signings – Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas and Fellipe Luiz who has since retraced his steps back to Atletico Madrid.

Petr Cech has departed to be replaced by Asmir Begovic. And Radamel Falcao is there too. But where their current lack of serious reinforcements could hurt most would be in attack and defence.

Costa won’t stay fit for 38 weeks surely. So also is legendary captain John Terry who must bow to his advance age at some point. The thing about aged players is that they may initially cope with early season pace. But their legs soon give way at the business end of the campaign.

One can only imagine what happens to the Blues rear without their inspirational captain, or their lethal hitman.

Branislav Ivanovic also gave me some concern as he was constantly skinned by Swansea’s Jefferson Montero who isquick and technical, but certainly not the fastest or the most technical in the BPL. I like Ivanovic a lot and had never seen him given so much run around like Montero did all day long at Stamford Bridge.

Is it poor pre-season form or has age finally caught up with this very versatile defender? Chelsea fans will hope it is the former. This is a player who has been central to most Chelsea’s successes since arrival.

The Blues can’t simply do without the burly Serb at the rear. His energetic overlapping runs down the flank have produced occasional crucial odd goals.
So one can only guess how strong a Chelsea backline will be without the duo of Terry and Ivanovic.

The final reason why I don’t think Chelsea will retain their crown has to do with slow start to the campaign. Hello, all Mourinho’s championship-winningsides never played catch-up. They might not record big victories ab initio, but they didn’t play catch-up.

With Manchester City (A) and Everton (A) their next two fixtures, it would be a big surprise if Mou’s team top the log at month end. Although stranger things have happened in the past and it’s just early days yet.

Never mind, my final prediction comes on September 07. And my record stands at 80% success for predicting BPL champions early September. It’s even better in post-winter windows where I’ve maintained a mere 100% accuracy!

 

Now to the little matters of Oliver’s performance in the stalemate against Swansea. I agree 100% with the ref on Costa’s claim. The Swansea defender got the ball first before making contact with the Blues forward.
In all fairness, I thought it was a penalty on first video evidence. But subsequent ones show the defender made a very good tackle. Good call by Oliver.
On Courtois’ expulsion and Swansea’s penalty, I’ve got no doubt that the penalty decision was correct. Whether it happened inside the box or on the line of the box doesn’t matter as far as the rule is concerned. It was a pen, full stop.

But the more contentious decision was the sending off of Courtois. In live play I shouted penalty and red card, thinking the goalkeeper committed a professional foul by obstructing a goal-scoring opportunity.

But further video replays from different angles showed that Gary Cahill might have gotten into a good position to avert danger, hence I thought a straight red was harsh and that a yellow would have suffice. And I quickly twitted my revised thought too.

But in all fairness, it was a borderline decision that could have gone either way. And the ref’s interpretation is the most important, remember?

However, after the dusts of the game had cooled, I remembered another part of Law 12 in FIFA’s Laws of the Game which spells out instant expulsion for any player who makes reckless or dangerous tackle on an opponent. Now that’s an interesting one and another reason that could have prompted Oliver’s decision.

Whatever he thought, I think Oliver’s case is very strong and Mou was smart not to scathe the ref. And for conspiracy theorists, Swansea were harshly flagged offside twice, once each in either half, thus curtailing goal-scoring moves.

Overall, I think the Blues should look at themselves rather than hide under any perceived ref mistakes. Chelsea will most likely finish in the Top 4, just that I’m not so sold on their successful title defence thus far. Watch this space early next month.

STOKE 0 – 1 LIVERPOOL: THE Reds pinched victory to banish the demons of last season’s 6-1 pulverization at the Britannia Stadium, thanks to a 25-yard beautiful scorcher by their Brazilian wonder kid Philippe Coutinho.

It was a very good victory for a side that refused to be bullied and had some of us very worried at the quality (or lack of it) of their pre-season opponents. Liverpool showed grim determination and even committed more fouls than the usually robust hosts!

Now that’s a new arsenal in the Reds armoury, one of the major characteristics of champions. Will Liverpool win the title this season? Nah, nah, nah! Will they finish in Top 4? Maybe, just maybe. In fact my current thoughts have them in 5th position, just outside the Top 4. As a Koppite, I hope they prove me wrong.

From their pre-season, it was clear the Reds might struggle for goals this term. And the evidence from the Britannia where a half fit Christian Benteke led the line for 90 minutes didn’t suggest any marked improvement. Though of course, it’s only one match from 38 – the season is a marathon, not a sprint.

 

MANCHESTER CITY: THE deposed champions have had a very poor pre-season where the only bright spots have been the pristine forms of record signing Raheem Sterling and teenage prodigy Kelechi Iheanachor.

Given the manner of his team’s performance or lack of it last season, I’m surprised City owners have extended Manuel Pellegrini’s contract by a further year to quell the rumours of a pre-contract agreement with Bayern Munich boss Pep Guardiola.

After such bold support for their manager, you’d think the Chilean is condemned to deliver the goods to justify the Arabs faith in him this term. Trust me, this is a make or mar season for the usually taciturn tactician.

Where do I see City in May? Well on current form, they don’t look like champions and their Top 4 position too can’t be taken for granted. We’ll see.

MANCHESTER UNITED 1, TOTTENHAM 0: The Red Devils stole a win against Spurs who improved on pre-season performance but still lacked the most important ingredient of all – finishing. Spurs outplayed United before they got undone by Kyle Walker’s own goal midway in the first half.

United had a good pre-season and I think they could challenge for the title if LVG addressed their weak areas in the defence and attack. But their performance against Spurs was not top notch. To be honest, the Red Devils got away with one by claiming maximum points in that match, given Tottenham’s impressive and assured start which contrasted sharply with the hosts.

The defensive frailties were there for all to see on Saturday and the fact that United didn’t have a meaningful shot until after the hour mark tells its own story about the potency of their attack. They would need to do better in those departments to mount any meaningful title challenge.

While they need good quality in central defence – new boy Damian did well at right back while Luke Shaw had a good game too – and attack, United look top heavy in midfield where they have about seven very good options. Better to have very good options than not, I think. But what about the grey areas?

 

For now, I rate them as the second best team for the title behind Arsenal. Are you laughing? Well, wait for my thoughts next month, will ya?

But spare a thought for Spurs. From their summer performance thus far, Mauricio Pochetino needs to quickly address his defensive midfield choices. Nabil Bentaleb and Eric Dier (a central defender) were deployed in that department at Old Trafford where they looked like fish out of water.

Whatever has happened to Algerian international Bentaleb who shone at the World Cup just last year and looked a very bright prospect. He practically put every foot wrong at OT by passing straight at opponents in his half of the pitch.

Then what about Christian Eriksson who appeared a genius when he moved to BPL two seasons ago? The Danish international didn’t show up for most of last season and missed the best chance at OT last Saturday when he chipped his effort over the bar from less than 10 yards.

You’d think this is a very big season for Eriksson to start appreciating in value once more or he could continue a steady decline into oblivion.

It was a goal-rious return to the BPL last weekend – 27 goals from nine matches gives an average of three goals per match. And one goal that was rightly chalked off for dangerous play was that of Norwich City’s Cameron Jerome.

The Canaries striker twitted his frustrations afterwards, though he also admitted the better team won: “I still think refs should be able to come out and explain decisions after the game! Take nothing away from #CPFC – great counterattack team.”

What are your best goals of the opening weekend? I’d pick Coutinho’s winner against Stoke, OdionIghalo’s solo strike against Everton and Ross Barkley’s screaming equalizer in the same match at the Goodison Park as my Top 3. Did you see any better strike last weekend?

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