UCL DRAW: Why Arsenal need to fear Monaco

ARSENE Wenger got his wish when former club AS Monaco were drawn to face the Gunners in the Round of 16 of this season’s UCL campaign. Wenger had a fairly successful seven-year spell at the French principality club between 1987 and 1994 during which he won one Ligue 1 title (1988) and a French Cup (1991). He also led them to the final of the defunct European Cup Winners’ Cup which they lost 2-0 to Werder Bremen in 1992.

Gunners faithful had feared the worst ahead of the draws as Arsenal finished second behind Borussia Dortmund and faced the unwanted prospect of clashing with one of the giants of the game. That was their lot in five successive seasons when their campaign had ended at this stage.

But Wenger made a wish to have Monaco on the eve of the draws and his prayers were answered, sending their global followers into raptures of optimism.

 

Monaco are probably the weakest of the eight group winners and certainly don’t boast of Arsenal’s experience in this clime. Coach Leonardo Jardim’s wards could only score four goals in six group matches, half of which came in their final group clash against Zenith St Petersburg of Russia!

They barely managed to have a paltry 25 percent of their total shots on target. Over 50 percent of their 56 shots were off the mark. They had about the fewest number of passes and accuracy in the entire group campaign; had less than 50 percent possession and hit the post only once in six matches. But they are fairly adventurous as reflected in their total 23 off-side calls which is almost twice as much as the Gunners 13 from the same number of group matches.

Arsenal win hands down statistically and historically because while both sides have never clashed competitively, the Gunners have a sparkling away record to French clubs in European competitions, boasting seven wins and three draws on all their 10 visits to France.
 

But the underdogs from the French principality cannot be discountenanced. While they may be shy of goals, it is noteworthy to point out that Jardim’s boys don’t concede as well. They boast the meanest defence in the group phase where their backline was breached only once – away to consecutive Europa Cup losing finalists Benfica.

Monaco’s strength is built on defensive organisation and discipline. Hence Arsenal must be at their sharpest to beat these underdogs. And should the Gunners get careless at the back, Jardim’s boys are capable of notching and protecting the odd goal to win matches.

Also, Gunners faithful who celebrate being drawn against Monaco need only remember that the principality club have psychological advantage over the more fancied North Londoners following their 1-0 victory over the hosts at the last Emirate Cup.

Radamel Falcao, who headed the only goal of the match which earned the French outfit the Emirate trophy, may be on loan at Manchester United, Monaco boast of many other match winners such as much-sought-after midfielder Joao Moutinho, the supplier of the Colombian’s winner at the Emirate Stadium last August, and highly experienced campaigners like former Chelsea and Real Madrid Portuguese defender Ricardo Carvalho.

Historically, Monaco have only lost once on home soil in six matches against English clubs, winning four which included the last two. The principality club actually accounted for Arsenal’s bitter London rivals Chelsea 5-3 aggregate in the semi-finals of the 2004 Champions League campaign before bowing 3-0 to Jose Mourinho’s FC Porto in the final.

Arsenal are my tips to win this tie over two legs. But they must be very wary of Monaco’s hidden threats or they could be headed for another Round of 16 heartbreak.

PSG vs Chelsea
ANOTHER manager who got his wish was Chelsea’s Mourinho. The Special One prayed to have French champions PSG at this stage and his prayer was answered.
 

Chelsea eliminated the Parisians in the quarter-finals of this same competiontion last season, overturning a first leg 3-1 deficit by winning 2-0 at Stamford Bridge. PSG have largely been unchanged since then: France legend Laurent Blanc is still the manager and many of the gladiators of last season are still around. They are not likely to repeat the mistake of last season.
 

Chelsea are my slight favourites in this fixture, though Blues faithful should be concerned that the last time Mou’s wish to be drawn against an illustrious opponent in this competition was granted, Chelsea had their nose bloodied as Barcelona eliminated them in 2005/2006 campaign en route to clinching the ultimate prize via a 2-1 victory against Arsenal in the final.

Manchester City vs Barcelona
ENGLISH champions Man City reached this round the hard way, needing victories in their last two matches against Bayern Munich and away to AS Roma. Personnel-wise, the Citizens are arguably the strongest team any group winner would be delighted to avoid, especially after the form they showed in those two crucial victories.
 

However, their history of UCL underachievements means you never know with the Sky Blues. Boss Manuel Pellegrini also has to decide whether to unleash his team or put them under the leash. In full flow, City could beat any team in the world, including Barca and their irrepressible  front line of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar.

But which City will turn up against the Catalans? Answer that million dollar question and you know who will progress to the quarter-finals. Barca still have the same perennial problems at the back, though I think they will slightly edge this fixture simply because I’m not sure of Pellegrini’s boldness in big games.

Juventus vs Dortmund
THIS is a repeat of the 1997 final when the German underdogs prevailed 3-1 against a star-studded Juve who paraded illustrous names like Zinedine Zidane, Alessandro Del Piero, Tacchinardi, Ciro Ferrera among others.

But such is their change of fortunes that if the clashes were to be played today, Juve would roast Dortmund who have fallen from grace to grass as they surprisingly lie in Bundesliga relegation zone.
Even manager Jurgen Klopp is frustrated with his underperforming boys and thoroughly berated them after their latest reverse which see them drop back into the danger zone. Klopp’s worries are exacerbated by the long injury lay-off of star man Marco Reus.
 

However, two months is a long time in football as the Germans might have recovered from their myriad of ailments by the time they visit Turin next year.
I’m going for a Dortmund success over two legs if they recover as I expect them to and because even Juve have been less convincing in European competitions since they returned among the elites three seasons ago.

Schalke vs Real Madrid
THE Champions League has never been successfully defended since it assumed its new name in 1992. But if there ever is a side capable of winning Europe’s most glamorous club trophy back-to-back, it is this Carlo Ancelotti’s rolling juggernaut.
 

The two clubs are led by Italian managers who have won this competition, though ‘Lotti’s three triumphs (two with AC Milan) dwarfs Roberto Di Mateo’s surprise success with Chelsea in 2012.
And because Real are the strongest club in the world today, I don’t see how Schalke could end their title defence at this stage.

Shakhtar vs Bayern
THIS is another rubber-stamp win for favourites Bayern Munich. Pep Guardiola’s boys are arguably the second best team in the world, slightly behind their 2014 semi-final conquerors Real Madrid.

Bayern are desperate to reclaim the cup they won two seasons ago and are seen as the biggest challenge to Real’s title defence. They should have too much for Ukraine big guns Shakhtar Donetsk.
 

In the remaining two fixtures I see Atletico Madrid and FC Porto go past Bayer Leverkusen and FC Basel respectively.

Basel have overachieved already after they qualified ahead of five-time winners and favourites Liverpool in their pool. But their Cyderella run should come to an end against resurgent Porto who are spearheaded by the firepower of Colombian hitman Jackson Martinez.

So these are my tips. Did I match your thoughts? If not why not give me tips in the comment box below and let’s compare notes next year.