MANCHESTER United boss Louis van Gaal recently described the cut-throat chase for this season’s Top 4 finish as a “rat race.” And he is absolutely right, especially as only five points separate seventh placed Southampton from third placed Arsenal with 10 matches to go. For sure this promises to be a mother of all rat races. No less if you consider the big prize at stake to finish in the English Top 4 as a prelude to a place in the group stage of the very lucrative UCL.

With the advent of the new TV deal, participants in the group stage of the Champions League next season will bank a massive £40million windfall. That princely prize is guaranteed for the Top 3 in England while the fourth placed team will negotiate their way into this pot of gold by winning a two-legged affair against one team from lesser ranked leagues from Europe. Even in today’s hyper-inflated economy, 40 million quid lump sum is still a tidy prize by anybody’s standard.

So how do I think this rat race would go?

Looking at their final 10 fixtures, I expect only three teams Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United to scrap for the remaining two slots in this campaign. I think Soton and Spurs will ultimately fall short on the day of reckoning. I think you might need a minimum of 71 points to secure a place in the Top 4 this term. And given that I don’t see Spurs get more than 18 points from their remaining 10 matches. That could be three points short of that “cut-off mark” which I set.

 

As for Soton, I think their manager Ronald Koeman was very realistic when he said they needed just 15 points more to clinch a place in Europe, Europa League I reckon. Yes, I think the Saints could get 16 from their remaining 30 points which unfortunately might still see them fall short of their dreams. Now, giving their incredible run in this campaign, I think it would be scant reward if they didn’t make at least Europa via their league placing.

But wherever they finish in May, Koeman and his backroom staff have done a very remarkable job, considering the mass exodus they experienced last summer which made some of us fear for their Premier League safety. Soton can generally look back on this campaign with pride and satisfaction, even if they ultimately fail to make Europe as I feared they would not.

So to the big three – Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United – fighting for two lucrative UCL spots, I think the Red Devils are the most vulnerable of this trio. United currently occupy the last UCL spot, but only two points ahead of fifth placed Liverpool who still host the Red Devils at Anfield. The tie at Anfield could be the ultimate UCL decider between England’s two most successful clubs. This monster clash holds in two weeks time and would be an appetizer for the globally anticipated El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barca which holds a couple of hours later.

But don’t take my word for it. Let’s analyse the chances of this trio in their remaining matches.

CURRENT FORM: Both Liverpool and Arsenal are the best form teams in the league in that other. Since the Reds lost 3-0 to United at Old Trafford last December – their last league reverse till date – they have played 11 BPl matches with nine wins and two draws for a total of 29 points. Arsenal (27 points), and Chelsea (24) are second and third respectively behind Brendan Rodgers boys. United (23) are fifth behind Stoke (also 23 but with better goal difference).

In both his previous seasons as Liverpool boss, Rodgers’ boys have always enjoyed good home run which usually resulted in impressive surge up the log. Record has it that Rodgers has lost only four matches in total from January to May in his past two seasons at Liverpool. That’s four matches out of 38 – certainly a championship winning form!

 

We must also remember that Arsene Wenger’s Gunners normally go on a long winning run around this time of the season. Should they be eliminated from the UCL by AS Monaco next week, trust Le Prof to guide his wards to another lengthy winning run in the home stretch to secure his annual UCL qualification “trophy.”

If teams play to their current form – and nothing has suggested otherwise – then both Arsenal and Liverpool would finish ahead of United in the race for the lucrative UCL qualification spots.

FIXTURE LISTS: Looking at their final 10 fixtures, United have the most difficult home run of the big three vying for the remaining UCL gold pots. Both Arsenal (Liverpool H, Chelsea H and Man Utd A) and Liverpool (Man Utd H, Arsenal A, Chelsea A) have only three very difficult fixtures each from their remaining 10 matches compared to United who have FIVE (Spurs H, Liverpool A, Man City H, Chelsea A and Arsenal H). You would notice that I’ve not added a dicey away trip to Everton among these difficult fixtures. Never mind Everton’s indifferent league form this season, they are still a very difficult side to beat at their Goodison Park stadium where both Man City and Liverpool were held to pulsating draws.

As a matter of fact, United’s league fate could be sealed in their next six matches, starting from home clash against Spurs. During this run, they will clash with Liverpool A, Aston Villa H, Man City H, Chelsea A and Everton A. And going by their recent patchy form, I reckon they will have overachieved if they nicked 10 points from the available 18 from these six matches. My hunches tell me they could get far less – between FIVE and SEVEN POINTS!

 

But after this gloom, I reckon the Red Devils would win at least three of their final four fixtures without a defeat. That would be 10 from 12 points. And if we generously pick the biggest haul from their next six matches according to my hunches, that will give them a total of 17 points from their remaining 30, taking their season haul to 70 points overall. That’s just one point below my projected cut-off point for UCL.

From the same token, I reckon Arsenal would chalk 21 points from their remaining 10 matches and finish on 75 points overall, a haul which could be good enough for the last automatic qualification slot for UCL.

As for Liverpool, I reckon they would pick a minimum of 20 points from their remaining 10 matches, going by their current form which places them above any team in England since the turn of the year. This will catapult them to a minimum of 71 points – my exact cut-off mark for UCL qualification. And when you remember that the Reds have lost only three matches in their last 27 – that’s one defeat in nine, then you expect them to chalk more than 20 points in their final 10 matches.

Should they get more, they could nudge Arsenal off third place and fulfill my final prediction when I said the Reds would finish comfortably in third place. But even if they failed in this regard, 20 points should still be enough to clinch them the last UCL spot.

ANFIELD COULD BE KEY: United won the reverse fixture 3-0 at Old Trafford at a time Liverpool were still groping in darkness, searching for form. That victory pushed the Red Devils 10 points ahead of Liverpool. Therefore, it’s a remarkable turnaround that the Reds now only trail United by just two points. That could well be the case when the clash for the return leg at Anfield on March 22.

Hence a win for either side would be like a UCL qualification decider, given that the final UCL spot might be fought by these two. A draw in this clash would suit United very well as it would maintain their small advantage while a win would be fantastic, taking them FIVE points beyond the Reds with eight matches to go. Not the end of the world, but a significant advantage nonetheless.

A Liverpool win in this monster clash too would not signal the end of the world for United in this interesting Top 4 race. But when you consider LVG boys still have at least FOUR testy clashes after this compared to Reds TWO, then any advantage could become significant.

Liverpool could play this match under pressure, though they did so in recent victories against Spurs (3-2 H), Soton (2-0 A) and Man City (2-1 H). Therefore, United would do well to tread with caution, especially as the Reds have dropped only two points at Anfield in their last six home fixtures. Apart from Chelsea and Arsenal, all other Top Six teams who visited Anfield this season were forced to bite the dust.

 

TEAM CHEMISTRY: This is another factor which could undo United in the race for the Top 4. Of all the teams in the Top 7 of the BPL, only the Red Devils seem to lack identity even with more than two-third of the season gone. Bizarrely, LVG is yet to settle on a recognized starting XI or formation, albeit his case has not been helped by injury scourge.

This has ensured inconsistent and often lethargic performance. After the mammoth 150 million quid outlay in the summer, United fateful are entitled to expect very good performance from their team. But LVG’s unexplained philosophy and playing personnel out of positions have stifled the once feared team of champions. United have been very imbalanced at best this season.

In contrast, both Arsenal and Liverpool have recognized teams and formations. In fact, anybody could correctly predict at least EIGHT members of any of these teams starting XI. This builds good team chemistry which usually ultimately fosters enduring good runs.

LAST 10 FIXTURES OF UCL CHALLENGERS

ARSENAL (54 Points)
SAT MAR 14: VS WEST HAM (H)
TUE MAR 17: VS MONACO (A) UCL
SAT MAR 21: VS NEWCASTLE (A)
SAT APR 04: VS LIVERPOOL (H)
SAT APR 11: VS BURNLEY (A)
SAT APR 18: VS SUNDERLAND (H)
SUN APR 26: VS CHELSEA (H)
SAT MAY 02: VS HULL CITY (A)
SAT MAY 09: VS SWANSEA (H)
SAT MAY 16: VS MAN UTD (A)
SUN MAY 24: VS WEST BROM (H)

MAN UNITED (53 Points)
SUN MAR 15: VS TOTTENHAM (H)
SUN MAR 22: VS LIVERPOOL (A)
SAT APR 04: VS ASTON VILLA (H)
SUN APR 12: VS MAN CITY (H)
SAT APR 18: VS CHELSEA (A)
SUN APR 26: VS EVERTON (A)
SAT MAY 02: VS WEST BROM (H)
SAT MAY 09: VS CRYSTAL PALACE (A)
SAT MAY 16: VS ARSENAL (H)
SUN MAY 24: VS HULL CITY (A)

LIVERPOOL (51 Points)
SAT MAR 16: VS SWANSEA (A)
SUN MAR 22: VS MAN UTD (H)
SAT APR 04: VS ARSENAL (A)
MON APR 13: VS NEWCASTLE (H)
SAT APR 18: VS HULL CITY (A)
SAT APR 25: VS WEST BROM (A)
SAT MAY 02: VS QPR (H)
SAT MAY 09: VS CHELSEA (A)
SAT MAY 16: VS CRYSTAL PALACE (H)
SUN MAY 24: VS STOKE (A)

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (50 Points)
SUN MAR 15: VS MAN UTD (A)
SAT MAR 21: VS LEICESTER (H)
SUN APR 05: VS BURNLEY (A)
SAT APR 11: VS ASTON VILLA (H)
SUN APR 19: VS NEWCASTLE (A)
SAT APR 25: VS SOUTHAMPTON (A)
SAT MAY 02: VS MAN CITY (H)
SAT MAY 09: VS STOKE CITY (A)
SAT MAY 16: VS HULL CITY (H)
SUN MAY 24: VS EVERTON (A)

SOUTHAMPTON (49 Points)
SUN MAR 15: VS CHELSEA (A)
SAT MAR 21: VS BURNLEY (H)
SAT APR 04: VS EVERTON (A)
SAT APR 11: VS HULL CITY (H)
SAT APR 18: VS STOKE CITY (A)
SAT APR 25: VS TOTTENHAM (H)
SAT MAY 02: VS SUNDERLAND (A)
SAT MAY 09: VS LEICESTER (A)
SAT MAY 16: VS ASTON VILLA (H)
SAT MAY 24: VS MAN CITY (A)

CONCLUSION: From the above analysis, I believe Arsenal would finish third while Liverpool would clinch the last UCL spot, leaving United and Spurs to clinch the two Europa League slots. But of course, I could be wrong. Why not air your thoughts on the UCL rat race and let’s compare notes in May.

This is where I’d pause for the week, though not before saying my warmest congrats to Chelsea fans on this forum and in the Diaspora for their recent success in the Capital One Cup. Also, I’d like to make a wish before I leave: I wish Bayern Munich and Barcelona should clash at some stage in the ongoing UCL campaign. But not in the final, please! What would I give to watch these two exciting teams in a two-legged knock-out clash!